Fx Daily Analysis

AUD/USD

Current trend

 

Last week the AUD/USD pair was growing due to the positive Australian macroeconomical data publications and the USD weakness, caused by the political instability in the USA. On Friday the trade instrument lost around 80 points, but this fall was due to the closing of the profitable positions below the key resistance level of 0.8000. Today AUD has a high potential to grow and can break the key level of 0.8000 in the nearest future, as the positive changes in the employment market and the growth of the economical active population in Australia promise the growth of the consumer activity and the accelerating of the economical growth in the country.


Today the investors should pay attention on the PMI index in the USA. The publications are not expected to affect the pair, and the further upward trend will be developing today. The nearest key issues of the week are the RBA trimmed mean CPI and the Consumer Price Index publication in Australia.



Support and resistance


On the daily chart the pair is growing alongside the upper Bollinger Band, reaching the key resistance level of 0.8000. The indicator is pointed upwards, as the price range is significantly widen, which can confirm the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram reached the maximum in the positive zone, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area, which will be the signal to open short positions.


Support levels:0.7910, 0.7870, 0.7810, 0.7760, 0.7725.

 

Resistance levels: 0.7965, 0.8000, 0.8065, 0.8090.




USD/CAD

Current trend

 

Last week CAD strengthened against US dollar. The pair dropped by over 100 points and closed at 1.2538 which i the lowest weekly closing level since June 2015.


The drop of the pair was caused by the weakness of US dollar. Political tension in the USA continues to grow, and the failure of Trump's project to cancel Obamacare caused a new wave of USD sales. Investors remain skeptical about the President's ability to gain the upper hand in the Congress, and the new investigation of Trump's business deals only increases the tension around the US currency.


Key events for the pair this week will be the decision of the Fed on the interest rate and the release of annual data on the US GDP. Today traders should pay special attention to the release of data on the changes of industrial and services PMI.



Support and resistance


On D1 chart the instrument continues to fall along the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The price range is widened indicating possible continuation of the downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for the opening of short positions.


Support levels: 1.2500, 1.2450, 1.2400.

 

Resistance levels: 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2635, 1.2700.




USD/CHF

Current trend

 

Last week the US dollar was falling due to the poor US macroeconomical statistics. The Export Prices Index and the Housing Market and NAHB Housing Market Index reached this year minima, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey were below the expectations.


The USA FRB head’s and officials’ attention was fixed on the poor macroeconomical data and low USA inflation, which affected the situation negatively. The USA FRS interest rate decision will be published on Wednesday, June 26, and it will depend on the officials’ interpretation of the inflation indicators. The USD was also weakened greatly by the Congress refusal of the health care reformation last week.


Last week the USD/CHF fell by almost 200 points, broke down the key support level of 0.9550, and reached the two-year minimum zone. The investors are waiting for the USA FRS interest rate decision on Wednesday. Today the Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI publications will be published at 15:45 (GMT+2) in the USA, the indices are expected to grow by 0.1 points against the previous values. At 16:00 (GMT+2) the Existing Home Sales data will be published, the decrease of the indicator is expected.


The traders won’t probably take any actions before the USA FRS interest rate decision on Wednesday, and, on the other hand, the most of them will close profitable positions. The consolidation of the pair is expected in the next two days.



Support and resistance


Support levels:0.9450, 0.9370, 0.9300, 0.9240.

 

Resistance levels: 0.9490, 0.9550, 0.9640.





USD/JPY

Current trend

 

Last week the Japanese yen, as the majority of currencies, strengthened against US dollar. Last Thursday the Bank of Japan made a decision on the interest rate and released a report on the prospects of the economy. The regulator kept the interest rate unchanged confirming its ultra-soft policy once again. Acting in line with it, the Bank also reconsidered inflation forecasts from 1.4% to 1.1%. Moreover, the data on Japanese trading balance were released on the same day, and the value of the balance was lower than expected, while the trading balance in view of seasonal fluctuations reached a minimal value in 15 months. However, despite these serious weakening factors, the Japanese currency continued to strengthen, and the pair USD/JPY fell.


Negative economic indicators of the US economy that have been released for the second week in row were supported by the position of FOMC officials and the failure of the health care reform in the Congress. Based on these negative terms, FOMC will make its decision on the interest rate on Wednesday, July 26. The pair has broken through the important support level of 112.50-111.50 and in case the tendency continues it may reach the levels of 110.00 and lower.


Today the market is expecting important data from the USA: industrial and service PMIs at 15:45 (GMT+2) with expected growth and changes in the volume of sales in the secondary housing market at 16:00 (GMT+2) with forecast decline. The main scenario for today and tomorrow is the correction of the pair.



Support and resistance


Support levels:110.50, 109.00, 108.10.

 

Resistance levels: 111.50, 112.50, 113.20.