CRUDE OIL PRICE FALLS AS US RIG COUNT DROPS AGAIN

The euro declined slightly as the market reacted to divisions emerging from Europe about financing the recovery process. That is after Austria, Denmark, Netherlands, and Sweden submitted another proposal, risking the one agreed by Merkel and Macron. The four countries said that the emergency fund should be financed by loans only. This puts the previous $540 billion deal at risk because it needs a vote from other member states. At the same time, highly indebted countries like Spain have rejected a debt deal, claiming it will worsen their financial positions. We will receive the German Q1 GDP data and Ifo business survey today.

The price of crude oil rose slightly after Baker Hughes released the oil rigs count data. The number of oil-rigs in the United States declined by 21 to 237 in the previous week. That was the tenth straight month of declines, which implies that low oil prices have forced the US to slash production. The active rig count, which also includes gas rigs, fell to 318. The price of oil also increased as the market continued to believe that demand was on an upward trend now that countries are reopening.

The Japanese yen gained slightly as investors focused on the growing risks of trade and Hong Kong. On trade, tensions between the US and China have increased, threatening the first phase of the agreement signed in January. The decision by China to impose its security operations in Hong Kong has complicated issues. The yen tends to react to these risks because investors consider it a safe haven. We will also receive the exports and imports data from Hong Kong and the unemployment rate data from Sweden.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair declined slightly to the current low of 1.0892. On the four-hour chart, the price is slightly above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving average. The price is also below last week’s high of 1.1015 and it is between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The pair may continue falling today as bears attempt to move below the 50-day EMA at 1.0870.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair declined slightly to a low of 1.2173 in the Asian session. On the four-hour chart, the price is in a long-term declining trend and slightly below the 50-day and 100-day EMA. Also, it is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. With the UK and the US being on holiday today, the pair will likely be in a holding pattern.

BTC/USD

The BTC/USD price dropped to an intraday low of 8631. On the four-hour chart, the price is between the 25-day and 50-day EMA. Also, the RSI has moved closer to the oversold level of 30. It appears to have formed a triple top pattern at about 9926. Therefore, the price may continue falling as bears attempt to move below 8600.