Crude oil prices rise as markets wait for Trump-Putin phone call
March 31, 2020
Posted by: Analysis Team
Category: FOREX, Technical Analysis
The price of crude oil rose in overnight trading after Trump said he would talk to Putin about how to fix the situation. The price also rose after data from China showed that manufacturing activity in the country rose in March. According to China Logistics, manufacturing PMI in the country bounced back to 52.0 from the previous 35.7. The non-manufacturing PMI rose from a record low of 29.6 to 52.3. As a result, the composite PMI rose from 28.9 to 53.0. In addition, new orders and employment increased in March. These numbers show that China is slowly coming back to life after the Coronavirus crisis decimated the manufacturing industry. Also, according to a report by the country’s Ministry of industry, resumption of work rate for industrial organizations was more than 98.6%.
US stocks gained yesterday as a wave of optimism returned to the market. The Dow, Nasdaq, and the S&P500 rose by more than 3%. This happened after analysts at JP Morgan released a report calling a bottom on stocks and other assets. Still, there are some visible cracks in the US economy. For example, the rate of unemployment is expected to increase sharply. Just yesterday, retailers like Macy’s. Gap, and Kohls, who employs almost half a million people said they were the temporarily laying-off staff. The impacts of these layoffs will be felt on Thursday when we receive the jobless claims data and on Friday when we will receive official employment numbers.
We will receive a number of important data today. Earlier today, Japan released employment data for February while Australia released housing statistics. From the UK, we will receive the final reading of Q4 GDP data while from Germany, we will get the import price index for February and the unemployment data for this month. In Europe, Eurostat will receive the preliminary inflation data for this month. In the energy sector, OPEC will release crude oil production statistics from its members.
The XBR/USD pair bounced back after Trump said he would talk to Putin. The pair jumped from yesterday’s low of 25.52 to an intraday high of 27.22. On the 30-hour chart, the pair formed a hammer candlestick pattern, which is a bullish sign. Also, the price moved above the important resistance level shown in yellow while the short and medium moving averages made a crossover. The RSI too has been rising. The pair may continue rising today as traders wait for the Trump call with Putin.
The EUR/USD pair declined slightly to an intraday low of 1.1015. On the hourly chart, the pair’s price has formed a head and shoulder pattern and a triangle pattern as shown below. The price has also edged slightly below the 14-day and 28-day moving averages. This consolidation will likely continue today. It may also break out tomorrow after ADP releases its private payroll data.
The USD/JPY pair rose slightly after the weak employment data from Japan. The pair is trading at 108.50, which is slightly above yesterday’s low of 107.10. On the hourly chart, the pair is between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. The 14-day and 28-day exponential moving averages have also made a bullish crossover. The pair may continue moving upwards today to test the 50% Fibonacci level of 109.37.