ECB rate decision and final round of US data headline

During the upcoming trading week the ECB rate decision takes center stage, with most economists expecting the European Central Bank to cut rates and to lay the groundwork for more monetary policy accommodation during the third-quarter of 2019. We also see a raft of important data manufacturing, trade, housing and growth data coming from the United States economy, before the Federal Reserve’s much-anticipated rate decision next week.

Other key events to watch this week on the economic calendar include eurozone manufacturing data, Consumer Confidence, and German IFO data. Markets also await scheduled speeches from Reserve of Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Christopher Kent and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda.

Monday 22nd July, AUD RBA Kent Speech

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor and Chief Economic advisor to the RBA Governor, Christopher Kent, delivers a scheduled speech to market participants on Monday. RBA Governor Kent will deliver his latest on economic analysis, pertaining to the overall outlook of the Australian economy. Dovish commentary may cause the Australian Dollar to fall, while any upbeat language may be seen as positive for the Australian Dollar.

  •  The AUDUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 0.6985 level, key resistance is found at the 0.7070 and 0.7120 levels. 
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves below the 0.6985 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 0.6966 and 0.6930 support levels. 

Tuesday 23rd July, EUR EU Consumer Confidence

Eurozone Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity inside the eurozone. The reading is formed from a survey of about 2,300 consumers inside the eurozone, which asks respondents to evaluate future economic prospects. This indicator represents the arithmetic average of the balances of four questions: the financial situation of households, the general economic situation, unemployment expectations, and savings.

  • The EURGBP pair is bearish while trading below the 0.8780 level, key support is found at the 0.8710 and 0.8640 levels.
  • If the EURGBP pair trades above the 0.8780 level, buyers are likely to test towards the 0.8980 and 0.9050 resistance levels.

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Wednesday 24th July, USD Manufacturing PMI

The United States Manufacturing PMI reports on Manufacturing activity inside the American economy and represents economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies. PMI data provides advance insight into the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across these key sectors.

  • The USDCHF pair is bullish while trading above the 0.9950 level, key resistance is found at the 1.0010 and 1.0050 levels. 
  • If the USDCHF pair holds below the 0.9950 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 0.9760 and 0.9640 support levels.

Thursday 25th July, EUR ECB Press Conference

After the ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced, the European Central Bank holds a lengthy monthly press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi delivering a prepared statement. The main points of the conference are inflation and an economic overview and examination of the causes behind the Governing Council’s decision. During the conference, ECB President Mario Draghi answers questions and also gives important clues related to future monetary policy.

  • The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1220 level, further downside towards the 1.1175 and 1.1130 support levels seems possible.
  • If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1220 level, buyers are likely test towards the 1.1285 and 1.1360 resistance levels. 

Friday 26th July, USD US GDP Annualized

US Gross Domestic Product measures the market value of all final goods and services from a nation, usually calculated on an annual basis. GDP is annualized released by the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis and is solely based on quarterly data. Because most of the report components are known in advance the GDP reports significance has usually diminished. A strong GDP number is commonly related to a healthy and robust economy.

  • The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 108.00 level, further losses towards the 107.00 and 106.70 levels remains possible.
  • If the USDJPY pair trades above the 108.00 level, buyers are likely to test the 108.30 and 108.90 resistance levels.

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