• EUR/USD tests tops near the 10-day SMA close to 1.1050.
  • German Factory Orders slumped 2.7% MoM in July.
  • US ADP report next of relevance in the docket.

The recent bout of USD-weakness has taken EUR/USD to fresh tops in the vicinity of 1.1050, where resides the 10-day SMA.


The pair has regained attention and is now bouncing off earlier lows in the 1.1020/15 band and trades in the upper end of the weekly range, extending at the same time the recovery from YTD lows recorded on Monday.

The renewed offered tone in the Greenback pus the pair’s ‘oversold’ conditions in past sessions is allowing the ongoing recovery to the area further north of 1.10 the figure.

Collaborating with the upside in the pair, risk-appetite trends remain propped up by positive headlines from the US-China trade front, a better mood around Brexit and some not-so-dovish comments from Christine Lagarde on Tuesday.

In the docket, there seems to be no respite for the German industrial sector, as Factory Orders contracted sharply 2.7% MoM during July. Later in the NA session, the ADP report will be the salient event seconded by Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders and the key ISM Non-manufacturing.

What to look for around EUR

Spot is extending the recovery from 2019 lows near 1.0920 (Monday) amidst somewhat renewed optimism on the US-China trade front and the fresh offered bias surrounding the buck. However, the ongoing up move is seen as corrective only, as recent poor prints from the domestic docket keep the pressure intact on the single currency and strengthened further the need for ECB stimulus, which is likely to be delivered at the bank’s meeting later this month. This view is also expected to keep occasional bullish attempts well contained for the time being. On the political front, Italian effervescence looks dissipated for the time being, while concerns over a Brexit ‘no deal’ scenario look somehow mitigated across the Channel.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.03% at 1.1038 and faces the next barrier at 1.1046 (10-day SMA) followed by 1.1090 (21-day SMA) and finally 1.1163 (high Aug.26). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0925 (2019 low Sep.3) would target 1.0839 (monthly low May 11 2017) en route to 1.0569 (monthly low Apr.10 2017).

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