Euro wavers ahead of contentious EU recovery talks
July 17, 2020
Posted by: Analysis Team
Category: FOREX, Technical Analysis
The euro was little changed during the Asian session as traders reflected on the ECB interest rate decision and the upcoming EU meeting. Yesterday, the ECB, as was widely expected, left interest rates unchanged and called for more fiscal stimulus to help support the economy. Today, the focus will be on recovery fund talks that will happen in Brussels. We will be watching for any progress on these talks and whether there will be a deal between the two sides. Also, Eurostat will release the region’s inflation numbers.
The US dollar was little changed during the Asian session as traders reflected on the positive retail sales numbers released yesterday. The data showed that the headline retail sales rose by 7.5% in June after rising by 18.2% in the previous month. Analysts were expecting the data to show that retail sales jumped by 5%. Other data from the Philadelphia Fed showed that the manufacturing index rose to 24, which was higher than the expected 20.0. Today, we will receive the housing starts and building permits data from the US.
US futures are in the green as investors react to the ongoing earning season. Among the key companies that have released their earnings this week are Netflix, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs among others. In its report yesterday, Netflix made earnings per share of $1.59, which was lower than the expected $1.81. Its revenue of $6.15 billion was below the expected $6.08 billion. At the same time, the firm added more than 10 million new subscribers. Earlier during the day, Morgan Stanley’s revenue rose by 31% to $13.41 billion, beating analysts’ forecasts of $10.7 billion. This growth was driven by a 168% growth in its trading division.
The EUR/USD pair is little changed today ahead of the important EU meeting. It is trading at 1.1390, which is a few pips below this week’s high of 1.1452. On the four-hour chart, the price is still above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages while the signal and main lines of the MACD has made a bearish crossover. Therefore, the pair is likely to see some volatility as traders digest the day’s news.
The XBR/USD pair was little changed today. It is trading at 43.34, which is a few points below this week’s high of 43.93. The four-hour chart shows that the pair has made an ascending triangle pattern that is shown in white. It is also slightly higher than the 100-day and 50-day exponential moving averages. Therefore, since the triangle pattern is nearing its tip, there is a possibility that the price will continue rising, with the next target being at 45.
The XAU/USD pair fell to an intraday low of 1797, which is below last week’s high of 1818. On the four-hour chart, the pair has moved below the important ascending white trend line. This was the lower line of the ascending triangle pattern. It has also moved below the important 50-day EMA while the RSI has continued to drop. Therefore, the pair is likely to continue falling as bears target the next support at 1750.