(Feb 3 – 9) WEEKLY ANALYSIS

MANUFACTURING AND US JOB DATA ON THE AGENDA THIS WEEK

During the upcoming trading week traders look to the releases of key global manufacturing data and the job of the Nonfarm payroll report from the US economy. The ISM Manufacturing report from the United States and the UK PMI will be watched closely by investors. Employment data from the US will be another key focus, with the United States economy expected to have created around 155,000 new jobs during the month of December.

The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision will be closed this week, as the spread coronavirus threatens to dampen the prospects of the closely linked Chinese and Australian economies. The eurozone economy is also in focus, with the release of EU and German PMI data and monthly Retail Sales figures.

Monday 3rd February, UK Manufacturing PMI

The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is released by both the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. The PMI Index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the sector and below 50.0 indicates contraction. The Manufacturing PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector.

  • The GBPUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.3070 level, further upside towards the 1.3230 and 1.3300 resistance levels seems possible.
  • If the GBPUSD pair trades below the 1.3070 level, sellers are likely to test towards the 1.3000 and 1.2960 support levels.

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Tuesday 4th  February, RBA Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision is the market interest rate on overnight funds, with the RBA standing as the central monetary authority for the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at this meeting, following recent rate cuts. RBA policymakers are also tipped to strike an overall dovish tone towards the economy and monetary policy.

  • The AUDUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 0.6800 level, key support is found at the 0.6680 and 0.6635 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.6800 level, buyers may test towards the 0.6880 and 0.6940 levels.

Wednesday 5th February, US Private Sector Jobs

The ADP Private Sector employment change jobs report is released by the US Automatic Data Processing Inc and measures the change in the number of people employed inside the American private sector. A rise of this figure is seen as positive and good for stimulating US economic growth, while a weaker-than-expected number is seen as bearish and a possible indicator for future economic weakness.

  • The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9770 level, further downside towards the 0.9610 and 0.9540 support levels seems possible.
  • If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9770 level, buyers are likely test towards the 0.9810 and 0.9890 resistance levels.

Thursday 6th February, German Factory Orders

The German Factory Orders, released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an economic indicator that reports the dollar level of new factory orders for both durable and non-durable goods. The demand for German industrial products reflects the strength of the Factory Orders. The rise of the figure can indicate an expansion of the German economy. The figure is adjusted seasonally.

  • The EURGBP pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.8555 level, further gains towards 0.8610 and 0.8710 levels remain likely.
  • If the EURGBP pair trades below the 0.8550 level, sellers may test towards the 0.8350 and 0.8300 support levels.

Friday 7th February, US Nonfarm Payrolls Job Report

The NFP job report shows the monthly change in employment in the American economy, excluding the farming sector. The Non-farm payroll job report is the most carefully observed indicator in the employment situation inside the United States. It is considered the most inclusive calculation of job creation, which causes the Nonfarm Payrolls Job report to become highly significant to market participants, due to the great importance of labour in the United States economy.

  • The USDJPY pair is bearish while trading below the 109.00 level, further losses towards the 108.00 and 107.50 levels remains possible.
  • If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.00 level, buyers are likely to test the 109.60 and 110.00 resistance levels.
    Feb 3 – 9

    WEEKLY FORECAST



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