- January 25, 2021
- Posted by: Analysis Team
- Category: FOREX, Weekly Analysis
During the upcoming week, the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision headlines the economic docket. Most economists are expecting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, and talk down the economic prospects for the United States economy due to the rise in COVID-19 infections. This meeting is also important as it is the first Federal Reserve policy meeting under the Biden administration.
Other important events on the economic calendar this week include the release of the United Kingdom Inflation, Wage, and Employment data. Traders and investors will also look to GDP and IFO data from the German economy and Inflation, GDP and Jobs data from the United States economy.
Monday 25th January, German IFO Survey
The IFO Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The German IFO survey is made up of three components Business Climate, Current Assessment, and Expectations. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the euro currency, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish for the euro currency.
- The EURUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 1.2060 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2200 and 1.2280 levels.
- If the EURUSD pair holds below the 1.2060 level, sellers may test towards the 1.1980 and 1.1900 levels.
Tuesday 26th January, UK Claimant Change
The UK Claimant Change is released by the National Statistics and measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the United Kingdom during the reported period. This figure is not an unemployment indicator, it simply measures the number of people claiming benefits. Most analysts are expecting a high Claimant number, due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdown is having on the UK economy.
- The GBPJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 140.00 level, key technical support is found at the 138.80 and 137.00 levels.
- If the GBPJPY pair trades above the 140.00 level, buyers will likely test towards the 142.20 and 144.00 levels.
Wednesday 27th January, US FOMC rate decision
The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times per year to decide on United States monetary policy and where to set the nations interest rate. Rate changes impact interest rates for US consumer loans, bonds, mortgages and the US dollar exchange rate. The decision of the FOMC policy statement is usually very important, maybe more important than the actual interest rate move made by the central bank, due to it being highly anticipated by market participants. The policy statement includes hints for the future and contains the central bank’s collective outlook on the economy.
- The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9000 level, further losses towards 0.9140 and 0.9250 levels remain possible.
- If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9000 level, buyers are likely to test the 0.8800 and 0.8700 resistance levels.
Thursday 28th January, US Initial Jobless Claims
US Initial Jobless Claims is released by the US Department of Labor on a weekly basis and is a measure of the number of jobless claims filed by individuals seeking to receive state jobless benefits. This figure measures the overall strength in the United States labour market and is closely followed by both traders and investors.
- The USDCAD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2840 level, key support is found at the 1.2600 and 1.2500 levels.
- If the USDCAD pair moves above the 1.2840 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.3000 and 1.3130 resistance levels.
Friday 29th January, German Quarterly GDP
German Gross Domestic Product is one of the primary indicators used to evaluate growth in the German economy. Financial markets watch this release closely as the German economy is the largest inside the eurozone. The Gross Domestic Product figure is realeased by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland and is considered a key indicator of the economic health of the German economy.
- The EURGBP pair is bearish while trading below the 0.8900 level, key support is found at the 0.8840 and 0.8770 levels.
- If the EURUSD pair moves above the 0.8900 level, buyers may test towards the 0.8930 and 0.8990 levels.