FX Strategy 03 Aug 18 

CHF is the top G10 FX gainer today up +0.02% while GBP and SEK are the top losers down -0.22% and -0.34% vs the dollar. The USD-Index continues to rise with next resistance at $95.52 where a break may trigger a rally. Elsewhere, GBPUSD has dipped below $1.30 after Carney highlighted Brexit no deal risk; support level to watch is 1.2947 below which there is nothing much before 1.2815. In the equities space today, the Asian markets traded mixed with the Nikkei 225 closing +0.06% at 22,525, Kospi ending +0.76% at 2,287 and Hang Seng falling -0.14% to 27,676. The European equity indices have had a similar story with FTSE 100 down -0.29%, DAX up +0.46%, and CAC up +0.25%. In the rates market, global yields were trading weaker. The US 10-year yield was trading at 2.98% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.43%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading weaker for the day at $73.18; next support at $70.94, resistance at $75.50. In terms of data, the Australian retail sales was a beat (0.4% vs 0.3% expected) while UK services PMI missed (53.5 vs 54.7 expected). The main focus remains the US NFP; in our view, the US non-farm payrolls and average earnings likely show the way for short-term USD direction.


10-Year Yields Daily chart (6-month)



USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)



Brent Front Month Daily chart (6-month)



Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)




Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 1.1531 for 1.1612
Short-term view: EUR/USD has support at 1.1531 and MACD is looking to bottom, hence, we see a bounce to 1.1612. A break below 1.1531 to open 1.1513.



GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 1.2947 for 1.3043
Short-term view: GBP/USD has support at 1.2947 and MACD is looking to bottom. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.3043. Below 1.2947 to open 1.2915.



USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 111.27 for 112.10
Short-term view: USD/JPY has support at 111.27 and MACD is still constructive. Hence, we see a bounce to 112.10. A break below 111.27 to open 110.97.



AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at .7334 for .7407
Short-term view: AUD/USD has support at .7334 and MACD is looking to bottom. Hence we see a bounce to .7407. Below .7334 to open .7312.



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