FX Strategy 05 Oct 18 

GBP and JPY are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.21% and 0.10% vs the dollar while NZD and AUD are the top losers, down -0.46% and -0.45% vs the dollar. The US dollar and oil rallied thanks to a spike in US yields; positive US data and hawkish comments by Fed chairman Powell were the reasons behind the spike. Emerging markets and commodity currencies are bearing the brunt of the falling interest rate differentials. That said, we will be cautious buying USD at these levels. In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed down -0.56% at 23,975.62, Kospi ended -1.52% at 2,274.49and Hang Seng closed -1.73% at 26,623.87. The European equities had a similar story with the FTSE down -0.81% at 7449.5, DAX down -0.33% at 12,246.46, and CAC lower -0.75% at 5450.10. In the rates market, global yields spiked; the US 10-year yield was trading at 3.22% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.535%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading up (0.06%) for the day at $86.16, having broken the $85.0 handle, next resistance at 87.75.


Economic Calendar



10-year yields (6-month)



USD-Index Daily Chart (5-month)



Brent Front Month Daily Chart (6-month)



Trade Weighted Basket Hourly (one-week)




Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at at 1.1471 for 1.1551
Short-term view: EUR/USD short-term momentum is flat and we may see a choppy range between 1.1471 and 1.1551 a break either side needed to resolve short-term outlook



GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 1.2995 for 1.3100
Short-term view: GBP/USD support comes in at 1.2995, MACD crossover suggests a bullish bias and RSI is above 50. Hence we see an upside to 1.3100. Below 1.2995 to open 1.2948



USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 114.03 for 113.11
Short-term view: USD/JPY resistance comes in at 114.03, MACD crossover suggests a bearish bias and RSI is below 50. Hence we see a downside to 113.00. Above 114.03 to open 114.49



AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 0.7097 for 0.7018
Short-term view: AUD/USD resistance comes in at 0.7097, MACD and RSI are both bearish. Hence, we see a downside to 0.7018. Above 0.7097 to open 0.7134



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