FX Strategy 09 Jul 19

USD and CHF are the top G10 FX gainers today while AUD and NOK are the top losers, down -0.55% and -0.37% vs the dollar. Cable hit a 6-month low on dollar rally and Brexit worries. Rally in the greenback was due to market scaling back Fed rate cut bets. The euro dipped to 3-weeks low versus USD. AUD and NZD were also well offered and even JPY couldn’t stand against the reserve currency. There is now only a 5.9% chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting and chances of a rate cut at the September meeting has also been trimmed. In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.14% at 21,565.15, Hang Seng closed -0.76% at 28116.28 and Kospi ended -0.59% at 2052.03. The European equities were trading weaker with the FTSE down -0.28% at 7528.39, DAX down -1.23% at 12389.84, and CAC down -0.68% at 5551.18. In the rates market, global yields were trading firmer; the US 10-year yield was trading at 2.0648% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.353%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading up (0.59%) for the day at $64.49.


Economic Calendar



10-Year Yields Daily Chart (6-month)



USD-Index Daily Chart (6-month)



Brent Front Month Daily Chart (6-month)



Trade Weighted Basket Hourly (two-week)




Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.1230 for 1.1167
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance at 1.1230, MACD and RSI are still bearish, we look for a dip to 1.1167, likely 1.1110. Above 1.1230 to open 1.1333.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.2521 for 1.2421
Short-term view: GBP/USD has resistance at 1.2521, MACD and RSI are bearish. Hence, we see a dip to 1.2421, likely 1.2381. Above 1.2521 to open 1.2584


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 109.15 for 108.35
Short-term view: USD/JPY resistance at 109.15 MACD and RSI are topping out. Hence, we see a dip to 108.35, likely 107.87. Above 109.15 to open 110.00.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 0.6983 for 0.6916Short-term view:__ AUD/USD resistance at 0.6983 MACD and RSI are bearish. Hence, we see a dip to 0.6916, likely 0.6877. A move above 0.6983 to open 0.7033-0.7098.


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