FX Strategy 23 Apr 18 

NOK and SEK are the top G10 losers, down -0.36% and -0.30%, versus USD. The USD-index continues to improve though we will need a break above 91.00 to complete a base, this may not happen before the US Q1 GDP (Advance) due later in the week. CAD continues to be weak but positive developments on NAFTA may aid short-term recovery: there are already favorable reports that Mexico is on a brink of a favorable deal. In the equities space, the Nikkei 225 has closed lower by 0.33% at 22088 and the European equities have also been weak with FTSE at -0.01%, DAX -0.35%, and CAC -0.29%. In the rates market, the US and Bund 10-year yields continue to rise with the US 10-year yield trading at 2.99% and the Bund 10-year yield at 0.63%. In the energy space, the Brent front month is consolidating at $73.65, just under the bull channel top. In terms of data, the Euro-area manufacturing PMI (flash) missed expectation (56.0 versus 56.6) leading to a slight weakness in EUR. Looking ahead, the US Existing home sales at 1500 GMT will be the only data point of any note from the US. In terms of central bank speakers, ECB’s Coeure at 1500 GMT will be followed by BoC Governor Poloz at 2030 GMT and RBA Governor KEnt at 2300 GMT. Evans and Williams will speak at 1420 and 1615 GMT, respectively. 

 

10-year Yields Daily chart (12-month)

 

 

USD-Index Daily chart (6-month)

 

 

                       Brent Front month Daily chart (2-month)

 

 

Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)

 

 

Major Currency Pairs

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 

 

Strategy: Support at 1.2225 for 1.2300
Short-term view: EUR/USD has support at 1.2225 and daily MACD is still flat. Hence, we expect a bounce to 1.2259, possibly 1.2300. Below 1.2225 to open 1.2151-1.2185

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 

 

Strategy: Support at 1.3987 for 1.4118
Short-term view: GBP/USD has support at 1.3987 and MACD is recovering from the oversold area. Hence, we see risk of a bounce to 1.4118. Below 1.3987 to open 1.3925

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 

 

Strategy: Support at 107.48 for 108.32
Short-term view: USD/JPY has support at 107.48 and momentum is improving. Hence, we see risk of a bounce to 108.32. Below 107.48 to open 107.06

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 

 

Strategy: Support at 0.7627 for .7693
Short-term view: AUD/USD has support at .7627 and MACD is looking to improve from the oversold area. Hence, we expect a bounce to .7693. Below .7627 to open .7593.

 

BTCUSD Hourly Chart (Two-week)

 

Strategy: Resistance at $9016 for $8766
Short-term view: BTC/USD MACD is looking to weaken once again and resistance lies at 9016. Hence, we see a dip to 8766. Above 9016 to open towards 9189

 



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