- June 19, 2019
- Posted by: range
- Category: FOREX, Technical Analysis
The US dollar index was relatively unchanged as traders waited on the Federal Reserve interest rates decision. The bank will make the decision later today and is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the 2.50% level. It is also expected to make dovish statements that will point to a further rate cut in the near future. This comes a day after ECB’s Mario Draghi said that the bank was prepared to cut rates and restart the quantitative easing program. In a series of tweets, Donald Trump pressured the Fed not to be left behind on easing.
Sterling was also relatively unchanged ahead of inflation data, which is expected today. Data is expected to show that the headline CPI declined from 2.1% in April to 2.0% in May. On a MoM basis, the CPI is expected to have declined from 2.1% to 2.0%. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy products declined from 1.8% to 1.6%. The house price index is expected to have declined from a growth of 1.4% to 1.1% while the retail price index is expected to have declined from 3.0% to 2.9%.
The Canadian dollar was unchanged in the Asian session ahead of Canadian inflation numbers. Data is expected to show that the headline CPI rose from 2.0% to 2.1% in May. On a MoM basis, the headline CPI is expected to have dropped from 0.4% to 0.1%. The core CPI is expected to have dropped from 1.5% to 1.2% on a YoY basis. Meanwhile, the price of crude oil rose ahead of the EIA data which is expected to show that inventories dropped by more than 1 million barrels in the past week.
The EUR/USD pair was unchanged in the Asian session. As of this writing, the pair is trading at the 1.11195 level, which is below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It is also between the lower and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands and is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. The pair will likely remain within this range ahead of the important Fed decision.
The GBP/USD pair was unchanged ahead of the Fed decision and the UK CPI data. The pair is now trading at the 1.2537 level, which is slightly higher than yesterday’s low of 1.2505. On the hourly chart, this price is along the 25-day moving average and slightly lower than the 50-day EMA. The RSI has moved from a low of 9 to the current 45 while the accumulation/distribution has started moving higher. As with the EUR/USD pair, the GBP/USD pair will likely see increased volatility today.
The USD/CAD pair was relatively unchanged ahead of the Canadian CPI data. The pair is now trading at the 1.3393 level, which is closer to the month-to-date high of 1.3434. On the hourly chart below, the pair is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level while the RSI has been falling. It is also along the 50-day and 25-day moving average. Today, the pair will likely be a bit volatile ahead of the Fed decision.