- July 2, 2021
- Posted by: Analysis Team
- Category: FOREX, Technical Analysis
The US dollar rose against key currencies ahead and after the latest US non-farm payrolls data. The numbers published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the economy added more than 850k jobs in June after adding more than 559k jobs in May. The unemployment rate rose to 5.9% while manufacturing payrolls rose by more than 15k. In addition, the average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% on a year-on-year basis. These numbers show that the American economy is tightening as the country reopens. This trend will likely continue in the next few months.
The euro declined against the US dollar even after the relatively positive producer price index (PPI) data. The numbers revealed that the bloc’s PPI rose from 0.9% to 1.3%. This increase was better than the median estimate of 1.2%. The PPI increased by 9.6% year-on-year after rising by 7.6% in May. This was a better performance than the median estimate of 9.5%. These numbers show that the gap between producer and consumer inflation is widening signalling that companies are not adding costs to consumers. The numbers came a day after Markit published strong Eurozone manufacturing PMI data.
Global stocks were little changed even as technology executives welcomed the new global tax deal. Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 25 points while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones were little changed. In Europe, the DAX, FTSE 100, and CAC 40 indices were also little changed. Joe Biden’s administration scored a big win after most countries agreed to a new global minimum tax. This means that signatory countries will not have a significantly lower tax rate. It will also ensure that all companies in the countries pay a minimum tax rate of at least 15%. The new agreement came at a time when the Biden administration is considering raising US corporate taxes from 21% to 28%.
The EURUSD pair declined to a multi-month low of 1.1820. On the daily chart, the pair is approaching the neckline of the previous double-top pattern at 1.1.1700. It has also moved below the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages (EMA) while the signal and histogram of the MACD have moved below the neutral line. It has also moved below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling as bears target the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1710.
The GBPUSD pair declined to a low of 1.3735, which was the lowest level since April 19. On the four-hour chart, the pair declined below the short- and long-term moving averages while the signal and histogram of the MACD moved below the neutral line. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also hovering near the oversold level. Therefore, the pair will likely keep falling with the next target being at 1.3700.
The AUDUSD pair declined to 0.7450. On the four-hour chart, the pair moved below the important support at 0.7477. It has also moved below the short and longer term moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above the oversold level. The signal and histogram of the MACD have moved below the neutral line. Therefore, the pair may keep falling as bears target the next key support at 0.7400.