Weekly Analysis (Week: Jan 13 – 19)

Global inflation and Chinese GDP headline the economic calendar

Market watch

During the upcoming trading week, CPI inflation data from across the globe and Chinese quarterly GDP figures take center stage. Traders and investors will be closely watching the release of Consumer Price Index inflation numbers from the United States, Germany, EU, and the United Kingdom economy. The Chinese economy also releases key quarterly growth figures, at a time when the world’s second-largest economy is starting to slow down.

The United Kingdom also releases key Retail Sales, Manufacturing, Trade and monthly GDP numbers this week. Investors will also be looking at Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures from the Chinese economy.

Monday 13th January, UK Monthly GDP

UK monthly Gross Domestic Product is released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the United Kingdom. GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on sterling, while a falling trend is seen as negative on sterling.

  • The GBPUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.3100 level, key support is found at the 1.3000 and 1.2900 levels.
  • If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3100 level, buyers may test towards the 1.3155  and 1.3210 levels.

Tuesday 14th January, US CPI Inflation

The US Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy is released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive for the greenback, while a low reading is seen as negative for the greenback.

  • The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 109.00 level, key support is found at the 108.80 and 108.40 levels.
  • If the USDJPY pair trades above the 109.00 level, key resistance is found at the 109.70 and 110.50 levels.

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Wednesday 15th January, UK CPI Inflation

The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index is released by the National Statistics and measures the change in the price of goods and services growth. CPI is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends, therefore CPI figures are closely watched by the Bank of England. A rise in the Consumer Prices Index may determine whether the Bank of England increases interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth.

  • The EURGBP pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.8490 level, key support is found at the 0.8450 and 0.8380 levels.
  • If the EURGBP pair trades above the 0.8490 level, buyers will likely test towards the 0.8550 and 0.8610 resistance levels.

Thursday 16th January, German CPI Inflation

German CPI inflation is an index that measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers inside Germany and is calculated and published by Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland. The Consumer Price Index represents the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends inside Europe’s largest economy.

  • The EURUSD pair is bearish while trading below the 1.1100 level, key support is found at the 1.1080 and 1.1020 levels.
  • If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1100 level, buyers may test towards the 1.1145 and 1.1200 levels.

Friday 17th January, Chinese Q4 GDP

Chinese Quarterly Gross Domestic Product is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and measures the national income and output for a given country’s economy. The GDP number is equal to the total expenditures for all final goods and services produced within the country in a stipulated period of time. It is the primary indicator of China’s economic health.

  • The AUDUSD pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.6840 level, key resistance is found at the 0.6980 and 0.7130 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair trades below the 0.6840 level, sellers may test towards the 0.6780 and 0.6710 levels.


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