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Next week’s economic data is rather slow, but this is likely a blessing as much of the attention from global markets will be cast towards Wyoming. This is where the who’s who of global Central Banks will meet at Jackson Hole for the annual policy conference, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be the headline of the event with a speech to be delivered at 10 AM Eastern Time on Friday Morning (August 25th).Read More
Despite trading softer around the July FOMC minutes release yesterday, the US Dollar has proven resilient over the past 24-hours, having erased all of Tuesday's losses. While the greenback's technical posture is improving, the DXY Index has yet to clear a key technical level required before we can say that the US Dollar has bottomed in the near-term.Read More
UK retail sales data for July beat market expectations but last month’s strong figures were revised a touch lower, leaving a mixed picture for the British Pound. Monthly sales rose by 0.3%, beating expectations of a 0.2% rise, but June’s 0.6% gain was revised down to 0.3%. On an annual basis, sales rose by 1.4% against expectations of a 1.3% gain, with June’s 2.9% rise downgraded to 2.8%.Read More
Gold prices rose as Fed rate hike expectations fizzled after US President Donald Trump broke with business leaders advising him via the Strategic and Policy Forum as well as the Manufacturing Council following his response to recent turmoil in Charlottesville, Virginia.Read More
The Dollar started the year with a jaw-dropping run of -10.9% as investors cut expectations around rate hike bets out of the Federal Reserve. As we came into 2017 flying high on the back of the ‘reflation trade’, expectations for U.S. data continued to drive-higher under the anticipation that a backdrop of stronger growth and inflation would allow the Federal Reserve to further ‘normalize’ monetary policy.Read More
The US Dollar continues to grind higher versus most of its major counterparts, as a clear effort at establishing a short-term bottom is under way. Certainly, after yesterday's July US Advance Retail Sales report and subsequent revision higher to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow growth tracker for Q3'17 (from +3.5% to +3.7%), it appears that economic data momentum is starting to shift in a more favorable direction for the US Dollar.Read More
UK unemployment fell to 4.4% from 4.5%, the lowest level since 1975, while the employment rate rose to a new record high of 75.1%, data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed today. And in another piece of good news for Bank of England governor Mark Carney, UK average weekly earnings 3m y/y grew by 2.1% in June, up from 1.9% and beating expectations of 1.8% while weekly earnings ex-bonus nudged also rose to 2.1% from 2.0% prior and 2.0% expectations.Read More
The Euro may come under additional downside pressure later in the session despite the economy expanding strongly. While the central bank may be pleased that its loose monetary policy is stoking growth, a lack of inflation within the zone will stay the ECB’s hand despite calls for a gradual tightening of monetary policy. Thursday’s ECB minutes may well shed more light on the central bank’s current thinking.Read More
A pickup in both the headline and core U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may foster a near-term rebound in GBP/USD as it puts pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later.Read More
In the table displayed below, are implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs for the next one-day and one-week time periods. Using levels of IV we calculated the projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Statistically, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)Read More
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