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Below, we’ve noted implied volatilities for major USD-pairs for one-day and one-week time-frames. Through implied volatility, we’ve calculated the projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. (Statistically speaking, 68% of the time price should remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)Read More
The big item for this week is the U.S. Dollar. With a Federal Reserve rate decision on the docket for this Wednesday, the bulk of market participants’ attention will likely be there; but it’s the series of U.S. data prints throughout this week that might end up being a bit more telling.Read More
Consumer price inflation is expected to have reached +2.2% in the second quarter of 2017, up from a prior reading of +2.1%, according to market estimates, and at the lower end of the central bank’s +2-3% target range (y/y). The RBA’s target is defined as a medium-term average to allow for any unseen circumstances and for lags in the effects of monetary policy.Read More
The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone PMI surveys headlines the data docket in European trading hours. Consensus forecasts suggest the pace of factory- and service-sector activity growth will slow for a second consecutive month to register at the weakest since February. An even softer result may be in the cards if the outcomes echo a recent string of disappointing regional statistics.Read More
The near-term outlook for USD/JPY appears to be unfazed by the dovish comments coming out of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as the pair slowly works its way back towards the June-low (108.80). USD/JPY slips to fresh monthly lows even as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) now expects to achieve the 2% inflation-target in fiscal-year 2019, and the pair stands at risk of facing additional losses next week should the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) show a greater willingness to retain the current policy for the foreseeable future. Read More
The pain trade in the U.S. Dollar has continued as ‘DXY’ has moved down to set fresh one-year lows after yesterday’s ECB meeting. The level of 94.08 was the swing-low set in August of 2016; and earlier this morning we saw DXY slide down to a fresh low of 93.99, which would be the lowest level for the Dollar since the ‘Brexit move’ on June 24th of last year. This was also one of the deeper targets from our Q3 forecast, with one target remaining at the level of 93.00.Read More
The Australian Dollar plunged after RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle poured cold water on hopes for a more hawkish policy stance. The central bank said it believes the so-called “neutral” policy rate – a setting that is neither loose nor tight – is now above 3 percent. That makes the current official cash rate of 1.5 percent decidedly accommodative, so markets read the announcement as setting the stage for tightening.Read More
With the ECB set to keep rates unchanged - it is one of the meetings in which new staff economic projections (SEPs) are not produced - traders should be focusing on President Mario Draghi’s press conference for clues as to what the central bank will do next.Read More
Yesterday we looked at the high probability of the European Central Bank taking a dovish outlook to markets at today’s rate decision and press conference. This very much fit the pattern of how the bank has communicated with markets throughout this year, as the ECB rate decisions in April and again in June saw a rather dovish outlook despite the rising growth and inflation figures that had been seen in the bloc.Read More
All eyes are on the European Central Bank. Recent comments from ECB officials have confounded the markets, stoking volatility. First, President Mario Draghi hinted that maintaining a neutral policy stance amid improving economic conditions may require tweaks, which the markets read as hinting at a reduction in QE asset purchases. The very next day, other ECB officials walked back the comments.Read More
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