USD/TRY PRICE ANALYSIS: STRUGGLES TO BREACH 14.90, BEARS ARE HOPEFUL BELOW 14.40

• USD/TRY is juggling in a range of 14.80-14.84.
• The RSI (14) has shifted into 40.00-60.00, which signals a consolidation ahead.
• The major may expose to 200 EMA after slipping below last week’s low.

The USD/TRY pair is oscillating in a narrow range of 14.80-14.84 in the Asian session. The major has performed lackluster in March and has been stuck around 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is trading near 14.80.

On a four-hour scale, USD/TRY is auctioning in a rising wedge in which the market participants consider pullback towards the lower end as a buying event. The upper end of the rising wedge is marked from February 24 high at 14.66 while the lower end is placed from January 28 low at 13.73.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bullish range of 40.00-60.00, which indicates consolidation ahead. While the 200-period EMA at 14.25 will continue to act as major support going forward.

For the downside, the Turkish lira bulls need to violate March 17 low at 14.58, which will drag the asset near last week’s low at 14.39. Breach of the latter will expose the pair to the 200-period EMA at 14.25.

On the contrary, greenback bulls can gain momentum if the asset surpassed March 14 high at 14.90, which will send the pair towards the upper end of the rising wedge near 15.35, followed by the 16 December 2021 high at 15.75.

USD/TRY FOUR-HOUR CHART