FOREX TODAY: DOLLAR STAYS ON THE BACK FOOT AS SENTIMENT IMPROVES

Here is what you need to know on Monday, July 18:

Markets remain risk-positive at the beginning of the week and the greenback is having a tough time finding demand. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which lost 0.6% on Friday, stays on the back foot in the early European session with US stock index futures rising nearly 1%. The European economic docket will not feature any high-tier data releases on Monday. Later in the session, the NAHB Housing Market Index from the US will be looked upon for fresh impetus.

On Friday, the data published by the University of Michigan showed that the Consumer Confidence Index edged higher to 51.5 in July’s flash estimate from 49.9. More importantly, the long-run inflation expectation component of the survey declined to 2.8% from 3.1% in June’s final print. After this data, the probability of a 100 basis points rate hike in July dropped below 30% from nearly 90% earlier in the week.

Commenting on the rate outlook, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that moving “too dramatically” could undermine positive aspects of the economy. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that over the weekend Fed policymakers were preparing to raise the policy rate by 75 basis points at the upcoming meeting.

EUR/USD closed the third straight week in negative territory but managed to erase a portion of its weekly losses during Friday’s rebound. As of writing, the pair was edging higher toward 1.0150.

Earlier in the day, the data from New Zealand revealed that the Consumer Price Index jumped to 7.3% on a yearly basis in the second quarter from 6.9% in the first quarter. This print came in higher than the market expectation of 7.1%. NZD/USD pair gained traction after this data and started to rise toward 0.6200.

GBP/USD managed to build on Friday’s recovery gains early Friday and was last seen trading at its highest level in five days near 1.1950.

Gold suffered heavy losses and registered its lowest weekly close in nearly a year. Supported by the broad-based dollar weakness early Monday, gold gathered recovery momentum and climbed to the $1,720 area.

Bitcoin capitalizes on risk flows early Monday and trades near the upper limit of its one-month-old range near $22,000. Ethereum is already up more than 8% on a daily basis on Monday and continues to push higher toward $1,500.