NZD/USD: FORECAST OF 0.66 BY YEAR-END WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE – ANZ

The kiwi has had a torrid year, and June added insult to injury as markets wiped another 3 cents off it, rounding out a decline of 9% for the year. Economists at ANZ Bank doubts whether NZD/USD will be able to reach the 0.66 level by year-end.

GLOBAL DRIVERS ECLIPSE LOCAL FACTORS

“The USD itself has been playing a bigger role as US and global drivers eclipse local factors, and there is no obvious reason to expect that to change ahead of the next round of US data, and ahead of the Fed’s next meeting at the end of July (where another 75 bps hike is expected by many). “

“Our forecasts assume that the USD will soften as the Fed tightening cycle progresses (as it has in past cycles), but this continues to be challenged, and if the NZD doesn’t fire before more tangible evidence of slowing domestic growth appears, our forecast (of 0.66 by year-end) will be more difficult to achieve.”