Rate focus

During the upcoming trading week, traders and investors look to key interest rate decisions for the Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. The Bank of England interest rate decision could generate significant volatility for the British pound currency if the MPC gives a clear indication of whether they are are going to follow other central banks across the globe and enter into a monetary policy easing.

Other highlights on the economic calendar include the Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes, Australian GDP data, and the Australian monthly jobs figures. The US dollar and stocks could also be moved by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is also expected to testify before United States Congress this week.

Monday 15th June, US Empire State Survey

The Empire State Manufacturing Index measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state. The index is often considered a leading indicator of the overall health of the United States economy. Businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

• The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 108.00 level, key resistance is found at the 110.00 and 111.00 levels.
• If the USDJPY pair moves below the 108.00 level, sellers may test towards the 106.50 and 106.00 levels.

Tuesday 16th June, UK Claimant Change

The UK Claimant Change is released by the National Statistics and measures the change in the number of unemployed people in the United Kingdom during the reported period. This figure is not an unemployment indicator it simply measures the number of people claiming benefits. Most analysts are expecting a high number due to the effects of the coronavirus lockdown is having on the UK economy.

• The GBPJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 136.00 level, key technical support is found at the 133.80 and 132.00 levels.
• If the GBPJPY pair trades above the 136.00 level, buyers will likely test towards the 136.80 and 138.00 levels.

Wednesday 17th June, UK Consumer Price Index

The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index is released by the National Statistics and measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. CPI is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends, therefore CPI figures are closely watched by the Bank of England. A rise in the Consumer Prices Index may determine whether the Bank of England increases interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth.

• The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading above the 1.2420 level, further losses towards the 1.2350 and 1.2280 levels remain likely.
• If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.2420 level, buyers may test towards the 1.2550 and 1.2650 resistance levels.

Thursday 18th June, US Initial Jobless Claims

US Initial Jobless Claims is released by the US Department of Labor on a weekly basis and is a measure of the number of jobless claims filed by individuals seeking to receive state jobless benefits. This figure measures the strength in the United States labor market and is closely followed by both traders and investors.

• The USDCAD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.3800 level, key support is found at the 1.3400 and 1.3300 levels.
• If the USDCAD pair moves above the 1.3800 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.3880 and 1.4000 resistance levels.

Friday 19th June, Japanese National CPI

The National Consumer Price Index is released by the Statistics Bureau and measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The CPI is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends, therefore CPI figures are closely watched by the Bank of Japan. Rise of the Consumer Prices Index may determine the BoJ to increase interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth.

• The EURPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 118.00 level, key support is found at the 116.45 and 114.90 levels.
• If the EURJPY pair trades above the 118.00 level, buyers may test towards the 122.80 and 124.50 resistance levels.