AUD and NOK are the top G10 gainers today, up +1.01% and +0.82% (vs USD) while JPY and USD are the top losers flat versus each other. Overnight, the Australian retail sales came in strong at 0.4% actual versus 0.2% expected and Company Gross Profits were also unexpectedly high (5.9% actual vs 3% expected). The financial markets are trading in a risk-on mode with high beta currencies gaining at the expense of safe haven currencies. The EUR has also had a strong start as Italy and Spain risks are being priced out. In the equities space, the Asian markets traded strong the Nikkei 225 ending the day +1.37% lower at 22,476 and Hang Seng finishing up +1.66% at 30,998. The story is the same for European equity indices, with FTSE up +0.66%, DAX up +0.22%, and CAC up +0.36%. In the rates market, the global yields continue to nudge higher with US 10-year yield trading at 2.915% (up 1bp today) and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.40%(up 1bp today). In the energy space, the Brent front month is trading flat for the day at $76.83 after failing to break above resistance at $78.20 last week (support now comes in at $74.5). In terms of data today, there is no key releases for Monday. Looking ahead at the rest of the week, the Euro-area retail sales, US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, RBA rates decision, Australian Q1 GDP, Canda’s Employment report and German industrial production are the key releases.
10-year Yields Daily chart (6-month)
USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)
Brent Front month Daily chart (2-month)
Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)
Major Currency Pairs
EURUSD Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Support at 1.1648 for 1.1800
Short-term view: EUR/USD broke the bear channel top and MACD is bottoming from near the zero line. Hence, we see a rise to 1.1765, possibly 1.1824. Below 1.1648 to open 1.1588
GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Suppport at 1.3320 for 1.3415
Short-term view: GBP/USD has support around 1.3320 and MACD has started to trend in the positive area. Hence, we see chances of a rise to 1.3415. A break below 1.3320 to open 1.3258
USDJPY Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Resistance at 109.75 for 109.14
Short-term view: USD/JPY has found resistance at 109.75 and MACD is looking to correct. Hence, we see likelihood of a dip to 109.14. A break above 109.75 to open 110.03
AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Resistance at 0.7653 for .7580
Short-term view: AUD/USD has strong medium-term resistance at .7653 and top of the bear channel is likely to cap short-term gains. Hence, we may see a correction to .7580. Above .7653 to open .7693
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart (Two-month)
(Chart by Reuters)
Strategy: Support at $7351 for $7947
Short-term view: BTC/USD bear channel is broken, MACD has broken the downtrend and support is established at 7351. Hence, we see a rise to 7947. Below 7351 to open towards 7087.