GBP and NOK are the top G10 gainers today, up +0.43% and +0.21% (vs USD) while AUD is the top losers down -0.14%. Overnight, the RBA left rates on hold at 1.5% (as expected) and provided little excitement to the FX markets; and understandably AUD moves were limited. We see AUD as vulnerable to a weak Q1 GDP print on Wednesday given market is now expecting a strong print. Elsewhere, the CAD is likely to remain under pressure as Nafta uncertainty continues. In the equities space, the Asian markets traded slightly firm with the Nikkei 225 ending the day +0.28% higher at 22,539 and Hang Seng finishing up +0.31% at 31,093. The European equity indices are also trading firm, with DAX up +0.39%, and CAC up +0.29%; FTSE an exception down -0.05%. In the rates market, the yields are largely flat with US 10-year yield trading at 2.937% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.415%. In the energy space, the Brent front month is trading flat for the day at $75.54 after falling once again on Monday (support now comes in at $74.5). In terms of data today, the UK services PMI was a beat (54.0 actual vs 53.4 consensus) and helped GBP gain ground. During the US session, the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 1400 GMT is the only key release. In terms of central bank speakers, BoE’s Cunliffe and Bundesbank’s Weidmann are due at 1000 and 1730 GMT, respectively.
FX Correlation (1-month)
(Click to see details)
USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)
Brent Front month Daily chart (2-month)
Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)
Major Currency Pairs
EURUSD Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Support at 1.1648 for 1.1800
Short-term view: EUR/USD broke the bear channel top and MACD is bottoming from near the zero line. Hence, we see a rise to 1.1765, possibly 1.1824. Below 1.1648 to open 1.1588
GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Suppport at 1.3296 for 1.3366
Short-term view: GBP/USD has support around 1.3296 and MACD is still primarilly bullish . Hence, we see chances of a rise to 1.3366. A break below 1.3296 to open 1.3258, possibly 1.3227
USDJPY Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Resistance at 110.22 for 109.40
Short-term view: USD/JPY has resistance at 110.22 (200day MA) and MACD is looking to correct. Hence, we see likelihood of a dip to 109.40. A break above 110.22 to open 110.65
AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)
Strategy: Resistance at 0.7653 for .7583
Short-term view: AUD/USD has strong medium-term resistance at .7653 and MACD is topping. Hence, we may see a correction to .7583. Above .7653 to open .7693
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart (Two-month)
(Chart by Reuters)
Strategy: Support at $7358 for $7947
Short-term view: BTC/USD bear channel is broken, MACD has broken the downtrend and support is established at 7358. Hence, we see a rise to 7947. Below 7358 to open towards 7087.