- September 9, 2019
- Posted by: range
- Category: Weekly Analysis
ECB widely tipped to reduce interest rates this week
During the upcoming trading week traders and investors look to the European Central Bank rate decision and press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates, with market participants also expecting outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi to announce an upcoming QE package, as economic growth in the eurozone economy continues to worsen.
Aside from the ECB, we see the release of CPI and PPI inflation data and Retail Sales figures from the United States economy. The United Kingdom economy also releases important monthly GDP, Unemployment, and Wage data. Traders also look to another important Brexit vote inside United Kingdom Parliament this week.
Monday 9th September, GBP UK Monthly GDP Report
Monthly United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product is released by the National Statistics and is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. Monthly UK GDP is important because it is considered the broadest measure of UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising better than expected number has a positive effect on the British pound, while a weaker number is seen as negative for the British pound.
- The EURGBP pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.9000 level, key resistance is found at the 0.9100 and 0.9240 levels.
- If the EURGBP pair moves below the 0.9000 level, sellers may test towards the 0.8910 and 0.8850 levels.
Tuesday 10th September, GBP UK Unemployment Rate
The United Kingdom Unemployment Rate is key data release issued by the National Statistics and is calculated by dividing the number of out of work individuals in the labour force, by all individuals currently in the labour force. High unemployment generally indicates that an economy is unsatisfying or has a falling gross domestic product and low unemployment may reflect an expanding economy.
- The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2195 level, key support is found at the 1.2150 and 1.2100 levels.
- If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.2195 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2350 and 1.2410 levels.
Wednesday 11th September, USD US Producer Price Index
US Producer Price Index excluding food and energy is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Department of Labor. US PPI is an inflation measure that tracks the average changes in prices of primary markets and commodities in all states of processing. Volatile products such as food and energy are excluded for PPI measure in order to capture an accurate calculation.
- The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 106.40 level, further losses towards 105.80 and 105.10 levels then remain possible.
- If the USDJPY pair trades above the 106.40 level, buyers are likely to test the 107.10 and 108.00 resistance levels.
Thursday 12th September, EUR ECB Press Conference
After the ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced, the European Central Bank holds a lengthy monthly press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi delivering a prepared statement. The main points of the conference are inflation and an economic overview and examination of the causes behind the Governing Council’s decision. During the conference, ECB President Mario Draghi answers questions and also gives important clues related to future monetary policy.
- The EURUSD pair is bullish while trading above the 1.1010 level, key resistance is found at the 1.1160 and 1.1300 levels.
- If the EURUSD pair moves below the 1.1010 level, sellers may test towards the 1.0940 and 1.0880 levels.
Friday 13th September, USD US Retails Sales
US Retail Sales is released by the US Census Bureau and measures the total receipts of all US retail stores. Monthly percent changes in the headline figure reflect the rate of changes In Retail sales, making the releases widely followed as an indicator of overall US consumer spending. Consumer spending makes a large proportion of the US economy and has a significant effect on US GDP.
- The USDCHF pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.9780 level, key support is found at the 0.9680 and 0.9540 levels.
- If the USDCHF pair trades above the 0.9780 level, buyers may test towards the 0.9910 and 0.9980 resistance levels.