FX Strategy 11 Jun 19

CAD and NOK are the top G10 FX gainers today, up 0.05% and 0.05% vs the dollar while NZD and SEK are the top losers, down -0.27% and -0.19% vs the dollar. The U.S. dollar traded near 2 1/2 month lows as the market price in the possibility of a Fed rate cut. The investors now expect a rate cut in July but there is a 20% probability that this may happen as soon as next week; U.S. CPI on Wednesday is a key data point to watch. Elsewhere, Sterling remains weak as Tory leadership contest gets underway; EURGBP is trading near 5-month highs. Speculations over a possible rate cut by the BoE may also keep the pound weak. In the Asian equities space, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.33% at 21,204.28, Hang Seng closed 0.76% at 27789.34 and Kospi ended 0.59% at 2111.81. The European equities were trading firm with the FTSE up +0.45% at 7408.9, DAX up +1.23% at 12193.13, and CAC up +0.52% at 5410.6. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed; the US 10-year yield was trading at 2.1518% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at -0.223%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading up (0.18%) for the day at $62.4.



Economic Calendar



10-Year Yields Daily Chart (6-month)



USD-Index Daily Chart (6-month)



Brent Front Month Daily Chart (6-month)



Trade Weighted Basket Hourly (two-week)




EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.1361 for 1.1218
Short-term view: EUR/USD resistance at 1.1361 and MACD and RSI are giving bearish signals, we look for a dip to 1.1262, likely 1.1218. A move above 1.1361 to open 1.1400.


GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 1.2750 for 1.2600
Short-term view: GBP/USD has resistance at 1.2750, MACD and RSI are giving bearish signals. Hence, we see a dip to 1.2639, likely 1.2600. Above 1.2750 to open 1.2802.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 108.73 for 108.01
Short-term view: USD/JPY resistance at 108.73, MACD and RSI lacks upside momentum, Hence, we see a dip to 108.01, likely 107.57. Above 108.73 to open 109.15


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 0.6992 for 0.6915
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD and RSI have a bearish bias, resistance at 0.6992. Hence, we see a dip to 0.6915, likely .6877. A move above .6992 to open .7018.


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