FX Strategy 13 Aug 18 

JPY is the top G10 FX gainer today, up 0.43% while AUD and SEK are the top losers down -0.40% and -0.27% versus the dollar. The EUR hit fresh 13-month lows as Turkish lira slid further. Fears of a contagion are helping low yielding currencies such as JPY and CHF and weighing on the emerging markets. We don’t see this changing for now given the uncertainty on trade and geopolitics. In the equities space today, the Asian markets fell sharply, the Nikkei 225 closed -1.98% at 21,857, Kospi ended -1.50% at 2,248 and Hang Seng closed -1.52% at 27,936. The European equities have also had a similar story with FTSE 100 trading down -0.45%, DAX down -0.48%, and CAC down -0.20%. In the rates market, global yields are trading flat for the day having fallen sharply on Friday; the US 10-year yield is trading at 2.86% and the Bund 10-year yield trading at 0.32%. In the energy space, the Brent (front month) is trading weaker for the day at $72.78; next support at $70.94, resistance at $75.47. During the US session, there is no tier 1 release for the day. Looking ahead, we have German GDP (flash), UK unemployment and inflation rate, US retail sales, Australian retail sales, and Canada’s inflation rate are some of the key releases this week.


10-Year Yields Daily chart (6-month)



USD-Index Daily chart (2-month)



Brent Front Month Daily chart (6-month)



Trade weighted basket Hourly (one-week)



Major Currency Pairs


EURUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 1.1353 for 1.1446
Short-term view: EUR/USD MACD is bottoming and support comes in at 1.1353. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.1446. Below 1.1353 to open 1.1294.



GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at 1.2708 for 1.2844
Short-term view: GBP/USD support at 1.2708 and MACD is bottoming. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.2813, possibly 1.2844. Below 1.2708 to open 1.2641.


USDJPY Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Resistance at 110.83 for 109.96
Short-term view: USD/JPY momentum is short-term bearish and pivot is at 110.83. Hence we see a dip to 109.96. Above 110.83 to open 111.18.


AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)



Strategy: Support at .7268 for .7334
Short-term view: AUD/USD MACD is oversold and bottoming and support at 0.7268. Hence we see an upside to 0.7334. Below 0.7268 to open 0.7216.



BTCUSD 1-Hour Chart (Two-Weeks)



(Chart by Reuters)


Strategy: Support at $7201 for $6847
Short-term view: BTC/USD MACD has moved into the positive territory and support at 7201.46. Hence we see an upside to 6847.27. Below 6201.46 to open 6000.00.



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