RBA rate decision and inflation data headline the economic docket this week

Data watch

During the upcoming trading week traders and investors look to global Consumer Price Index inflation data, and key interest rate decisions for the Reserve Bank of Australia and the People’s Bank of China. The Reserve Bank of Australia are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and also express concern about the rising value of the Australian dollar currency.

Traders also look to Consumer Price Index inflation data from the Canadian and United Kingdom economies this week, at a time when market participants are worried about rising price pressures. The release of preliminary PMI Manufacturing data for the eurozone economy may also impact the euro currency this week.

Monday 20th July, Japanese National CPI

The National Consumer Price Index is released by the Statistics Bureau andmeasures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. The CPI is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends, therefore CPI figures are closely watched by the Bank of Japan. A rise of the Consumer Prices Index may determine the BoJ to increase interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth.

  • The EURJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 122.00 level, key resistance is found at the 124.80 and 126.00 levels.
  • If the EURJPY pair moves below the 122.00 level, sellers may test towards the 116.00 and 114.00 levels.

Tuesday 21st July, RBA Meeting Minutes

The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is bearish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate decrease.

  • The AUDUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.6880 level, key support is found at the 0.6770 and 0.6650 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair moves above the 0.6880 level, buyers may test towards the 0.7030 and 0.7130 levels.

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Wednesday 22nd July, Canadian Consumer Price Index

The Canadian Consumer Price Index is released by the Bank of Canada, and is considered a vital indicator for measuring domestic inflation. The Bank of Canada and market participant pay close attention to changes in Consumer Price Index. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as being bullish for the Candian dollar currency, while a low CPI reading is seen as being bearish for Canadian dollar currency.

  • The USDCAD pair is only bearish while trading above the 1.3660 level, further losses towards the 1.3500 and 1.3400 levels remain likely.
  • If the USDCAD pair trades above the 1.3660 level, buyers may test towards the 1.3720 and 1.3800 resistance levels.

Thursday 23rd July , US Continuing Jobless Claims

US Continuing Jobless Claims is released by the United States Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth.

  • The USDJPY pair is only bearish while trading below the 107.10 level, key support is found at the 106.60 and 106.00 levels.
  • If the USDJPY pair moves above the 107.10 level, buyers will likely test towards the 107.50 and 108.40 resistance levels.

Friday 24th July, EU Manufacturing PMI

The EU Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is released by Markit Economics and measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the eurozone because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total GDP. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector and below 50 indicates contraction.

  • The EURUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.1200 level, key support is found at the 1.1150 and 1.1000 levels.
  • If the EURUSD pair trades above the 1.1200 level, buyers will likely test towards the 1.1460 and 1.1500 resistance levels.


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