United Kingdom macroeconomic data points under the spotlight (Weekly Analysis)

UK macro focus

During the upcoming trading week the United Kingdom economy is heavily in focus as we see the release of Employment, Unemployment, Wage, Retail sales and Inflation data for the month of June. The upcoming Conservative party leadership race between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt also reaches its conclusion, placing the emphasis on increased volatility towards the British pound currency.

Importance will also be placed on United States Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence data, as the Federal Reserve will soon be deciding on interest rates. We also see the release of Canadian and New Zealand CPI inflation data, the RBA Meeting Minutes, and a raft of high-impacting economic figures from the Chinese economy.

Monday 15th July, CNY Chinese GDP

Chinese Gross Domestic Product is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China and measures the national income and output for a given country’s economy. GDP is equal to the total expenditures for all final goods and services produced within the country in a stipulated period of time. It is also considered a strong indicator of the health of the entire global economy.

  • The AUDUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 0.6965 level, key support is found at the 0.6935 and 0.6915 levels.
  • If the AUDUSD pair holds above the 0.6965, buyers may test towards the 0.7030 and 0.7100 resistance levels.

Tuesday 16th July, GBP UK Unemployment Rate

The United Kingdom Unemployment Rate is key data release issued by the National Statistics and is calculated by dividing the number of out of work individuals in the labour force, by all individuals currently in the labour force. High unemployment generally indicates that an economy is unsatisfying or has a falling gross domestic product and low unemployment may reflect an expanding economy.

  • The GBPUSD pair is only bearish while trading below the 1.2530 level, key support is found at the 1.2510 and 1.2470 levels.
  • If the GBPUSD pair holds above the 1.2630 level, key resistance is found at the 1.2610 and 1.2700 levels.

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Wednesday 17th July, GBP UK Consumer Price Index

The United Kingdom Consumer Price Index is released by the National Statistics and measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. CPI is a key indicator that measures inflation and changes in purchasing trends, therefore CPI figures are closely watched by the Bank of England. A rise in the Consumer Prices Index may determine whether the Bank of England increases interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth.

  • The EURGBP pair is only bullish while trading above the 0.8900 level, further upside towards the 0.9015 and 0.9100 levels remains possible.
  • If the EURGBP pair trades below the 0.8900 level, sellers may test towards the 0.8865 and 0.8790 support levels.

Thursday 18th July, GBP UK Retail Sales

United Kingdom Retail Sales data is released by the National Statistics and measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level over a stated time period. This figure represents an indicator of consumer spending inside the United Kingdom economy. Higher retail sales volume generally shows stronger consumer demand, higher retail output, and economic growth in the United Kingdom economy.

  • The GBPJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 135.00 level, further gains towards 136.00 and 136.80 levels remains possible.
  • If the GBPJPY pair moves below the 135.00 level, sellers may test towards the 134.50 and 133.80 support levels.

Friday 19th July, USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is released by the University of Michigan and is a key survey of US consumer confidence towards economic activity. It is widely considered an indication of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Two versions of this data are released with a two-week difference in between, which are preliminary and revised. The survey is a compilation of answers from approximately five-hundred American consumers.

  • The USDJPY pair is only bullish while trading above the 108.65 level, key resistance is found at the 109.00 and 109.80 levels.
  • If the USDJPY pair holds below the 108.65 level, sellers may test towards the 107.40¬† and 106.60 levels.


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